Global managers bring capital onshore amid MENA private credit boom

At an estimated US$5 billion today, MENA’s private credit market could scale to US$20 billion within five years, with upside potentially exceeding US$50 billion depending on scope, according to Yaser Moustafa, head of emerging market private investments at Janus Henderson.

The acceleration is prompting a shift in how global asset managers approach the region, with capital increasingly deployed locally rather than routed into offshore markets.

Long positioned primarily as a source of institutional capital, the GCC is now drawing allocations back onshore as investable opportunities deepen across credit, real estate and infrastructure. National transformation programs in Saudi Arabia and the UAE are translating into tangible deal flow, particularly in segments underserved by banks.

Private credit is emerging as a focal point of this shift, targeting financing gaps in the SME segment through direct lending and structured solutions.

“MENA private credit returns are either comparable or superior to developed markets on a headline basis, with higher cash yields, lower leverage and stronger collateral profiles,” Yaser added.

This relative value proposition is becoming more pronounced as global investors reassess risk-adjusted returns in developed markets.

Deployment is expected to concentrate in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, where regulatory progress and pipeline visibility are strongest. As managers expand local origination and underwriting capabilities, MENA is increasingly being positioned not just as a capital source, but as a core allocation within global portfolios.